Method

Formulas

Direct sales are compared with delivering the same milk to the dairy. The dairy price is therefore counted as a cost of every litre sold directly.

dairyPricePerL     = pricePer100kg × 1.03 / 100
marginPerSoldLitre = sellPrice × (1 − paymentFeeShare)
                     − bottleCostPerL
                     − dairyPricePerL / (1 − wasteShare)
annualFixed        = hoursPerDay × daysOpen × hourlyValue
                     + electricityPerYear + maintenancePerYear
                     + labTestsPerYear + insurancePerYear
annualMargin       = marginPerSoldLitre × soldLitresPerDay × daysOpen − annualFixed
paybackMonths      = investment / (annualMargin / 12)
breakEvenLitresDay = annualFixed / (marginPerSoldLitre × daysOpen)
targetLitresDay    = (annualFixed + investment / paybackTargetYears)
                     / (marginPerSoldLitre × daysOpen)
cashFlow[m]        = −investment + m × annualMargin / 12,  m = 0..60

If the margin per litre sold is zero or negative, the break-even and target volumes are shown as "not profitable at this price".

What each result means

dairyPricePerL

The dairy price converted from € per 100 kg to € per litre. One litre of milk weighs about 1.03 kg.

marginPerSoldLitre

What one litre sold directly earns more than a litre delivered to the dairy, after payment fees, the bottle and the milk that was loaded but not sold.

annualFixed

Costs that do not depend on the volume sold: your time, electricity, maintenance, lab tests and insurance.

annualMargin

Extra margin per year compared with the dairy, after fixed costs.

paybackMonths

Months needed for the extra margin to cover the investment. If the annual margin is zero or negative, the investment does not pay back.

breakEvenLitresDay

Litres to sell per day for the annual margin to be exactly zero.

targetLitresDay

Litres to sell per day to recover the investment within the payback target.

cashFlow

Cumulative cash flow for each month from 0 to 60, starting at minus the investment.

Scenarios

Three scenarios are calculated. Expected uses your figures as entered. Pessimistic uses 25% fewer litres and 5 percentage points more unsold milk. Optimistic uses 25% more litres.

Starting values

Every starting value can be changed in the calculator. Values marked as not yet verified are placeholders until a reliable source is found.

Dairy price data

Dairy prices come from the raw milk price data of the European Commission's Agri-food Data Portal: monthly prices per member state, for conventional and organic milk, in € per 100 kg.

Each value is checked before it is published. A value is rejected if it is outside 20–90 € per 100 kg, if its month is more than 4 months old, or if it differs by 30% or more from the previous value. In that case the previous value stays and is marked as outdated.

Where no organic price is published, the conventional price is used. Where a country has no recent price at all, a neighbouring country's price is used. The calculator says so in both cases.

Last update: 13 October 2026

Data source: European Commission

API request: https://api.tech.ec.europa.eu/agrifood/api/rawMilk/prices?memberStateCodes=BE,NL,LU,DE,FR&years=2025,2026

Disclaimer

Estimate, not financial or legal advice. The results depend entirely on the figures entered. Check them with your accountant, and check the rules for selling raw milk with your food safety authority.